{
  "classification": "MODEL",
  "updatedAt": "2026-10-03",
  "disclaimer": "Sensitivity assumptions from the supplied research. Not an official ULM projection. Ranges are not probabilities or statistical confidence intervals.",
  "defaults": {
    "conference": 75,
    "guarantee": 50,
    "incremental": 50,
    "diamond": 1,
    "academics": 70,
    "benefits": 0,
    "stranded": 10
  },
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "fbs",
      "label": "Current FBS",
      "low": 0,
      "high": 0,
      "confidence": "Reported baseline",
      "assumptions": [
        "Current reported structure; no modeled savings."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fcs",
      "label": "FCS restructuring",
      "low": 0,
      "high": 3000000,
      "confidence": "LOW",
      "assumptions": [
        "Football program restructured, not merely relabeled.",
        "Reference: 75% conference, 50% football guarantees retained; 10% stranded cost."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no-football",
      "label": "Division I without football",
      "low": 1500000,
      "high": 3500000,
      "confidence": "LOW / MEDIUM",
      "assumptions": [
        "D-I membership retained and conference renegotiated.",
        "Required multi-sport portfolio retained; no major debt surprise.",
        "Reference: 75% conference distributions retained; football guarantees removed; 10% stranded cost."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "diamond",
      "label": "Diamond + Academics",
      "low": 1500000,
      "high": 3500000,
      "confidence": "LOW",
      "assumptions": [
        "Same restructuring as no-football; $0.75\u2013$1.5M targeted diamond investment.",
        "At $1M reinvestment, reference remainder is $0.5\u2013$2.5M."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "no-athletics",
      "label": "No intercollegiate athletics",
      "low": 5000000,
      "high": 9000000,
      "confidence": "VERY LOW",
      "assumptions": [
        "Long-run only; all athletics distributions and guarantees removed.",
        "Reference: 10% stranded fixed cost; full institutional marginal-cost study required."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "tuition": {
    "semesters": 2,
    "tuitionPerSemester": 5243,
    "housingLow": 1735,
    "housingHigh": 3269,
    "mealsPerSemester": 2500,
    "rosterProxy": 105,
    "note": "105 is an opt-in roster cap proxy, not ULM\u2019s confirmed roster. Gross billed estimate excludes nonresident surcharge and waivers; not net university margin."
  },
  "uncertainties": [
    "Sun Belt approval of non-football membership",
    "Alternative conference invitation and distribution",
    "True marginal student contribution after aid, waivers and replacement enrollment",
    "Stranded facilities, debt and personnel obligations",
    "NCAA/House and Title IX compliance of institutional athlete payments",
    "Deloitte recommendation, not yet public",
    "HR168 study result, due February 15, 2027"
  ]
}