{
  "verifiedAt": "2026-10-03",
  "title": "What football can return",
  "intro": "Visibility, alumni attachment and campus culture have value. The evidence supports asking how much ULM gets from them—and what it costs to sustain them.",
  "classificationNote": "FACT identifies what a primary source reports. These published research estimates describe other universities; they are not modeled ULM outcomes or official ULM projections.",
  "findings": [
    {
      "id": "applications",
      "title": "A breakthrough can attract applicants",
      "display": "2–8%",
      "metric": "Estimated application increase",
      "classification": "FACT",
      "evidenceLabel": "Published research estimate · other universities",
      "finding": "Pope and Pope (2009) estimated 2–8% more applications after top-20 football or top-16 basketball success.",
      "scope": "Approximately 330 Division I schools, 1983–2002; school and year controls.",
      "limitation": "This studies exceptional success, not the effect of simply keeping FBS football. Public-school effects were smaller than private-school effects. Applications are not net tuition revenue.",
      "sourceId": "benefits-applications",
      "sourceUrl": "https://devingpope.com/assets/files/Website_SEJ%20Sports.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "alumni-giving",
      "title": "Winning can activate alumni giving",
      "display": "+17%",
      "metric": "Estimated alumni athletic giving",
      "classification": "FACT",
      "evidenceLabel": "Published research estimate · other universities",
      "finding": "Anderson’s FBS study estimated 17% more alumni athletic donations and 3% more applications for a three-win improvement.",
      "scope": "Football results from 1986–2009; estimates condition on bookmaker expectations.",
      "limitation": "Effects for non-BCS schools generally lacked statistical significance. Athletic giving is not unrestricted academic giving. The study does not establish ULM’s return, and spending more does not guarantee more wins.",
      "sourceId": "benefits-giving",
      "sourceUrl": "https://anderson.are.berkeley.edu/pdf/Anderson%202017.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "student-connection",
      "title": "The shared experience matters",
      "display": "419",
      "metric": "Students surveyed",
      "classification": "FACT",
      "evidenceLabel": "Primary survey study · association",
      "finding": "A survey at three Midwestern universities linked football spectatorship, university brand attachment, community and student satisfaction.",
      "scope": "Hanson, Bryant and Lyman; published online 2019, journal issue 2020.",
      "limitation": "A survey association does not prove that football caused better retention or establish a dollar value. It does not show that these benefits require FBS status; sports at other levels can also build connection.",
      "sourceId": "benefits-campus-connection",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.emerald.com/ijsms/article-abstract/21/1/106/333937/Intercollegiate-athletic-programs-university-brand?redirectedFrom=fulltext"
    }
  ],
  "ulmCase": {
    "id": "ulm-2012-exposure",
    "title": "ULM’s 2012 moment was real",
    "display": "34–31",
    "metric": "Overtime win over No. 8 Arkansas",
    "classification": "FACT",
    "finding": "ULM’s official retrospective documents national ESPN coverage and a half-hour ESPN All-Access feature after the Arkansas upset.",
    "limitation": "This demonstrates exposure. It does not measure an increase in ULM applications, retention, donations or net revenue. No advertising-equivalent dollar value is assigned.",
    "sourceId": "ulm-football-exposure",
    "sourceUrl": "https://ulmwarhawks.com/news/2022/9/23/put-a-ball-down-the-thrill-ride-of-ulms-2012-football-season.aspx"
  },
  "decisionQuestions": [
    "What ULM-specific changes in applications, yield, retention and giving follow successful football seasons?",
    "How much of that benefit depends on FBS status, and how much could survive with FCS or other athletics?",
    "Which revenues and relationships would be lost under a change, and which costs could actually be avoided?"
  ],
  "modelGuardrail": "Do not turn these findings into automatic ULM enrollment gains, donor gains, avoided losses or dollar values in the simulator."
}